Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Luxury vs. necessity

Now be warned, this post might not be so rational, probably more speculative.

Given people's perception of a coming recession, they cut back spending. Suppose we classify those spending cutbacks as either necessary or luxury purchases. It's difficult to cut back necessities like heat, electricity, bread, milk, etc. Compared with that, a new television is much harder to justify.

It makes sense that necessity suppliers will fare better than luxury suppliers; some economic sectors and companies are more recession-proof than others.

So, should we stimulate luxury purchases? I doubt many people would be happy about subsidizing ANY luxury purchases for ANYONE. But the employees of luxury suppliers aren't all rich either. They need people (or companies) to purchase their luxury goods so they can buy necessary ones.

OTOH, it's difficult to stimulate necessary purchases. Oil is cheaper now, but you can only turn your thermostat up so far, you can only drive so many extra miles.

GST and personal tax cuts would seem to make sense. The extra money is disposable, "found" money which could be used on luxuries. But people don't have to spend that money, they have the option to save it.

So here's the question: are savings necessary or luxury?


I believe savings are either luxury or necessary, relative to how much you've saved already. Excessive savings could be luxury; retirement funds are necessary. If you think your retirement or rainy-day accounts are to low, or if you feel your job is at risk you might save as necessary. If you've saved enough for necessities you might still save rather than increase your luxury purchases; if you're that wealthy, a small tax refund won't do much to change your behavior.

So if tax cuts won't save the luxury sectors, what about government infrastructure spending? I doubt shovels in the ground will stimulate purchases of crystal artwork either directly or indirectly. Any trickle down from government contractors and their employees will probably have little benefit to the luxury sector.

So I think neither tax cuts nor infrastructure spending will boost the economy much. I think infrastructure spending might be a good idea anyway even if it isn't stimulus, if it's spent on necessary infrastructure and if the recession provides a "buying opportunity" as Mr. Harper suggests.

I think we just have to wait it out, until enough people have enough pent-up demand for luxuries. It'll happen eventually, and I don't see any way to arbitrarily accelerate it.

And thanks to Red Tory for re-kindling my inner Monty Python fan.



Will our children remember these days like the four Yorkshiremen?

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  103. Martha Layne Collins (born 1936) is a businesswoman and politician from Kentucky who was the state's 56th governor from 1983 to 1987. Prior to her election as governor, she was the 48th Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky, serving under John Y. Brown, Jr. She is the only woman to have been governor of Kentucky, and her election made her the highest-ranking Democratic woman in the U.S. at the time. She was considered as a possible running mate for Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale in the 1984 presidential election, but Mondale chose Geraldine Ferraro instead.
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  104. Hill was born in Guelph, Ontario. Her father was a teacher and librarian for the Edmonton Public Library and her mother was one of the first women to study at the University of Toronto. Hill started taking classes in architecture at the University of Alberta, until the program was canceled and she had to transfer to the University of Toronto. She graduated in 1920, becoming the first woman in Canada to receive a university degree in architecture.
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  105. The 1910 London to Manchester air race took place between two aviators, Claude Grahame-White (pictured) and Louis Paulhan, who each attempted to win a £10,000 prize for flying from London to Manchester in under 24 hours. Grahame-White was the first to make the attempt, on 23 April 1910, but engine trouble forced him to land near Lichfield, where he had to give up because of inclement weather. Several days later Paulhan began his flight, with Graham-White, his aeroplane only just repaired, following several hours behind. Despite Graham-White's best efforts, Paulhan arrived in Manchester on 28 April, and won the prize.
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  107. Ultima Underworld: The Stygian Abyss is a first-person role-playing video game released in March 1992 for IBM PC compatible systems running DOS. Set in the fantasy world of the Ultima series, it was developed by Blue Sky Productions (later Looking Glass Studios). The protagonist has to find and rescue a baron's kidnapped daughter from an underground cave system that contains the remnants of a failed utopian civilization. It introduced many technological innovations and has been hailed as the first first-person perspective role-playing game with 3D computer graphics.
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  108. The owner, tenant or manager (licensee) of a public house is properly known as the "pub landlord". The term publican (in historical Roman usage a public contractor or tax farmer) has come into use since Victorian times to designate the pub landlord
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  111. The Cathedral of the Immaculate Conception of the Holy Virgin Mary is a neo-Gothic church that serves as the cathedral of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Moscow. Located in the Central Administrative Okrug, it is one of only two Catholic churches in Moscow and the largest in Russia. The construction of the cathedral was proposed by the Czarist government in 1894. Groundbreaking was in 1899; construction work began in 1901 and was completed ten years later.
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    But like a jigsaw puzzle it's been torn all apart
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  114. McCormick Tribune Plaza & Ice Rink is a multi-purpose venue within Millennium Park in the Loop community area of Chicago, Illinois, US. On December 20, 2001, it became the first attraction in Millennium Park to open. The $3.2 million plaza was funded by a donation from the McCormick Tribune Foundation. It has served as an ice skating rink, a dining facility and briefly as an open-air exhibition space. replicas de relogios bvlgaripsicologia forense madrid

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    When does my "someday" begin
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