- Liberals 34%
- Conservatives 33%
- NDP 19%
- Green 7%
The poll also suggests Conservative support has increased in the West, but I think it's hard for them to increase their seat count much at all (they're pretty near 100% already). That means less support in the rest of Canada, possibly fewer Ontario seats, probably fewer Quebec seats.
Stronger Liberals numbers in Quebec and Ontario could raise their seat count quite a bit. With a little luck, some soft voters who supported the NDP in the last election might switch their support. It's optimistic but not unrealistic that Liberals could form a minority government with those numbers. I hope they last.
But why would Mr. Ignatieff form a coalition now, risking the possibility of a minority later? Perhaps these poll numbers are sufficient defense against an abuse of confidence votes?
The result which interests me is the shift of support within Quebec away from the BQ to the Liberals. If the BQ would lose seats to the Liberals, wouldn't they want to avoid an election? But to avoid an election, there is a strange potential that the BQ could support the Conservatives. That just doesn't sound right.