A comment from janfromthebruce reminded me of something I've wondered for a while. Different people use different criteria to decide their vote. I like to consider policy, but I know some people who decide by their local candidates (e.g. they'd vote for any party with a good local candidate).
There was a poll released in mid-December that claimed many people (51%) thought they voted directly for the Prime Minister. I don't think that many people were wrong, I think the question might have been interpreted to mean "vote for the local candidate of the party with the leader I'd like as PM."
But in the latest Nanos poll puts Ignatieff ahead of Layton. If some voters choose their local candidate based on leader (and I would argue Dion had this effect last October), then could some voters shift from NDP to Liberal?
Or could other factors such as a percieved shift of the Liberal leader to a more right wing stance affect voters deciding based on party policy?
How many of each? And so forth.
So I put a poll in the left-hand margin. Feel free to leave comments here.