Tuesday, December 23, 2008

The Uncoalition revisited

As posted by Peace, Order and Good Government, Eh? the uncoalition is the idea that the Liberals could form a government without an explicit coalition with the NDP, but rather rely on NDP, BQ and even Conservative (LOL) support from vote to vote. Please go read the comments, they're interesting.

Now Accidental Deliberations posts about Michaelle Jean's decision to allow prorogation. I think AD is suggesting the GG would seek an alternative government before calling an election; if so, I agree.

But something popped into my head this morning when I recalled Iggy speaking about the coalition. "I told caucus I will vote non-confidence in this government. I am prepared to enter into a coalition government if that is what the Governor General asks me to do," he said (from CBC).

Perhaps this isn't a suggestion of an uncoalition, but rather positioning the Liberal party as being "forced" into one by the GG. If Harper plays tricks with the budget again he could be voted down. Then it is not Iggy forcing a coalition, but the GG. The most interesting (entertaining?) thing to me is how this makes the GG's role much more active than ever before. Well, except King-Byng maybe, but that was before I was born.

And yes I said Harpers' tricks not Flaherty, and I mean Harper not Flaherty. I'm joining the list of people who question why Flaherty is still around and what if any value he adds.

What are the GG's options after a Conservative loss of confidence?
(in no particular order)
  1. Disolve parliament and call and election
  2. Ask the Liberals to form a government
  3. Ask the coalition to form a government
What would Jean do?

I think 1 is unlikely, but still possible. I think it is unlikely because I believe another election would end with another Conservative minority, right back where we started in 2006 (a 3rd time). I don't think the media would celebrate this result from the GG anyway.

I'm think 2 is also unlikely because it is necessarily less stable than 3. Then if the Liberals lose confidence an election would likely be necessary... but I'm no constitutional scholar, perhaps not.

Anyway I expect the GG would chose 3 as the most stable alternative, given the background posted at AD. So in this case Iggy could say "This is the will of the GG and the Queen. I didn't grab for power before hearing the revised budget. But the Conservative government lost confidence, prorogued parliament and still failed to work effectively within a minority house given a second chance." Maybe the coalition isn't completely dead - mostly dead is also slightly alive.

If the coalition failed blame would be shifted around to all parties, the Conservatives would say "I told you so", and Dion would likely wear some of Iggy's share (i.e. that Iggy was never enthusiastic about the idea).

But it likely won't go that far, the budget will likely be acceptable. I expect the Conservatives know they're not getting a third chance.

4 comments:

  1. Good post, and you're right on in the interpretation of Jean's actions (that she'd be leaning toward asking for an alternative government).

    That said, I'm not sure that she'd ask the Libs to form either a coalition government or a single-party government in particular. Instead, I'd expect her to simply ask them to form whatever government they can in order to win the confidence of the House - and it's due to the coalition that they can plausibly expect to be able to put one together.

    ReplyDelete
  2. And the only the libs can form a "stable govt" is to keep their written promise in the coalition document. Beginning with trying to screw your partners makes for "uncomfortable bedmates."

    One can sleep together without having sex, don't you know.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'm not afraid of a coalition, they're a staple of other governments from around the world. We're not so familiar with them in Canada, and perhaps people fear the unknown. If the Conservatives have lost confidence, they should go.

    OTOH I don't see how it could benefit the Liberals post-coalition. As I see it no one wants to wear this recession - http://therationalnumber.blogspot.com/2008/12/hot-potato.html

    ReplyDelete
  4. condo listings torontoEntrepreneurResourcesGood post, and you're right on in the interpretation of Jean's actions (that she'd be leaning toward asking for an alternative government).

    That said, I'm not sure that she'd ask the Libs to form either a coalition government or a single-party government in particular. Instead, I'd expect her to simply ask them to form whatever government they can in order to win the confidence of the House - and it's due to the coalition that they can plausibly expect to be able to put one together.

    ReplyDelete